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Walmart, Target, and Nvidia Headline a Pivotal Week for Q3 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
WMT, TGT, and NVDA reflect notable upcoming releases in the Q3 earnings cycle.
NVDA's report will wrap up the Q3 earnings season for the Magnificent Seven group.
Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 members that have reported are up 24.9% YoY on 13.7% higher revenues.
Walmart (WMT - Free Report) shares have seen a modest bid in recent weeks, likely reflecting the company’s defensive attributes as the more glamorous AI trade has lost some of its earlier luster. Despite recent struggles, Walmart shares outperformed peers like Target (TGT - Free Report) and even Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) over the last five years, up more than +175% vs. +49.7% for Amazon and -27.8% for Target. Walmart’s +175% gain over the last five years compares to a +79% gain for the S&P 500 index.
Unlike this standout performance over the last five years, Walmart shares seem to have lost their mojo this year, even though they seem to be rebounding lately, as the year-to-date performance chart below for Walmart, Target, Amazon, and the S&P 500 index shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Walmart shares were down sharply after the last quarterly release on August 20th, reflecting a combination of factors, including a seemingly lower-quality earnings beat (benefiting from tariff refunds), decelerating comp growth, and underwhelming Q3 guidance.
It will be interesting to see whether Thursday, November 19th's quarterly release helps the stock build on its recovery. We should keep in mind that we will have seen results from Target ahead of Walmart’s release, with Target reporting results before the market’s open on Wednesday, November 18th. As we saw in the performance chart above, Target shares have been enjoying a strong market run, outperforming Walmart and the broader market by a mile.
Walmart and other big-box retailers are undoubtedly facing a difficult operating environment, with elevated fuel costs adding to consumers’ financial burdens and increasing retailers’ expenses. These macro overhangs partly accounted for management’s softish guidance for Q3.
It is important to keep in mind that Walmart shares command a premium valuation, trading currently at 40.1X forward 12-month EPS estimates, only modestly below the 10-year high valuation multiple of 45.4X in February 2026. This represents a significant expansion in the valuation premium relative to Target, as the chart below of the two stocks’ 10-year valuation history shows
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Market participants expect stocks commanding premium valuation multiples to beat-and-raise when they report results, which is not what we saw from Walmart.
Despite the negative effects of elevated fuel costs on consumer spending and the company’s freight costs, Walmart remains better positioned than many others in the space given its value orientation, greater indexing to groceries, and robust digital capabilities. Walmart has been consistently gaining market share among higher-income households in recent years, which has more than offset affordability-based demand softness from its lower-income consumers.
Walmart is expected to report $0.64 in EPS on $186.5 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of +3.2% and +3.9%, respectively. For same-store sales, the expectation is U.S. comps (ex fuel) of +2.89%, compared to a +2.6% gain in the preceding quarter (vs. expectations of +3.07%) and a +4.5% gain in the year-earlier period (vs. expectations of +3.96%).
The expectation for Target on the comps front is +3.16% growth, following the +3.8% gain in the preceding period (vs. expectations of 2.54%). Target’s impressive comp showing in the August 19th release followed a similarly impressive result on May 2nd. Given the stock’s recent momentum, Target investors are likely looking for a repeat performance this week.
With respect to the Retail sector 2026 Q3 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 17 of the 30 retailers in the S&P 500 index. Regular readers know that Zacks has a dedicated stand-alone economic sector for retail, unlike its placement in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors in the Standard & Poor’s standard industry classification.
The Zacks Retail sector includes not only Walmart, Target, and other traditional retailers, but also online vendors like Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) and restaurant players. The 17 Zacks Retail companies in the S&P 500 index that have already reported Q3 results mostly belong to the e-commerce and restaurant industries, though we have several restaurant companies on deck to report this week as well.
Total Q3 earnings for these 13 retailers that have reported are up +2.8% from the same period last year on +10.7% higher revenues, with 70.6% beating EPS estimates and 52.9% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below put the Q3 beats percentages for these retailers in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, the revenue beats percentages for these online players and restaurant operators are tracking significantly below the historical averages for this group of companies, but EPS beats are far more numerous.
With respect to earnings and revenue growth rates at this stage, we like to show the group’s performance with and without Amazon, whose results are among the 17 companies that have already reported. As we know, Amazon’s Q3 earnings were down -2.4% on +12.1% higher revenues, as it missed both EPS and top- line expectations.
The two comparison charts below show Q3 earnings and revenue growth relative to other recent periods, both with Amazon’s results (left-side chart) and without Amazon’s numbers (right-side chart).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, earnings for the group outside of Amazon are up +11% on a +9.1% top-line gain.
Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, November 13th, we have seen Q3 results from 454 S&P 500 members, or 90.8% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +24.9% from the same period last year on +13.7% higher revenues, with 82.4% beating EPS estimates and 75.1% beating revenues estimates.
The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Excluding the Micron and Alphabet contributions, Q3 earnings for the remaining index members that have reported would be up +21.7%.
The comparison charts below show Q3 earnings and revenue growth for this group of companies, excluding Micron and Alphabet, across all periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
Looking at Q3 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 454 S&P 500 members with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total earnings are on track to increase by +28.9% from the same period last year on +14.6% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, index earnings are expected to increase by +27.9% from the same period last year, on +13.5% higher revenues in the current period (2026 Q4).
The revisions trend has been positive, as we have repeatedly noted in this note in recent weeks and as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We should note that the magnitude of positive revisions we are seeing for Q4 is weaker than what we saw in the comparable period for Q3.
The chart below shows the aggregate growth picture for the S&P 500 index on a calendar year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) , and Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) have substantial weight in the index's annual earnings growth pace. Nvidia has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons, but the semiconductor leader is on deck to report Q3 results after the market’s close on Tuesday, November 17th.
The chart below shows the substantial contribution of these three Tech players in the index’s earnings growth pace.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As we noted earlier, estimates for full-year 2027 are experiencing the same positive and broad-based revisions trend that we noted earlier in the context of 2026 Q4. The chart below shows how aggregate 2027 earnings expectations have evolved since the start of July.
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Walmart, Target, and Nvidia Headline a Pivotal Week for Q3 Earnings
Key Takeaways
Walmart (WMT - Free Report) shares have seen a modest bid in recent weeks, likely reflecting the company’s defensive attributes as the more glamorous AI trade has lost some of its earlier luster. Despite recent struggles, Walmart shares outperformed peers like Target (TGT - Free Report) and even Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) over the last five years, up more than +175% vs. +49.7% for Amazon and -27.8% for Target. Walmart’s +175% gain over the last five years compares to a +79% gain for the S&P 500 index.
Unlike this standout performance over the last five years, Walmart shares seem to have lost their mojo this year, even though they seem to be rebounding lately, as the year-to-date performance chart below for Walmart, Target, Amazon, and the S&P 500 index shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Walmart shares were down sharply after the last quarterly release on August 20th, reflecting a combination of factors, including a seemingly lower-quality earnings beat (benefiting from tariff refunds), decelerating comp growth, and underwhelming Q3 guidance.
It will be interesting to see whether Thursday, November 19th's quarterly release helps the stock build on its recovery. We should keep in mind that we will have seen results from Target ahead of Walmart’s release, with Target reporting results before the market’s open on Wednesday, November 18th. As we saw in the performance chart above, Target shares have been enjoying a strong market run, outperforming Walmart and the broader market by a mile.
Walmart and other big-box retailers are undoubtedly facing a difficult operating environment, with elevated fuel costs adding to consumers’ financial burdens and increasing retailers’ expenses. These macro overhangs partly accounted for management’s softish guidance for Q3.
It is important to keep in mind that Walmart shares command a premium valuation, trading currently at 40.1X forward 12-month EPS estimates, only modestly below the 10-year high valuation multiple of 45.4X in February 2026. This represents a significant expansion in the valuation premium relative to Target, as the chart below of the two stocks’ 10-year valuation history shows
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Market participants expect stocks commanding premium valuation multiples to beat-and-raise when they report results, which is not what we saw from Walmart.
Despite the negative effects of elevated fuel costs on consumer spending and the company’s freight costs, Walmart remains better positioned than many others in the space given its value orientation, greater indexing to groceries, and robust digital capabilities. Walmart has been consistently gaining market share among higher-income households in recent years, which has more than offset affordability-based demand softness from its lower-income consumers.
Walmart is expected to report $0.64 in EPS on $186.5 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of +3.2% and +3.9%, respectively. For same-store sales, the expectation is U.S. comps (ex fuel) of +2.89%, compared to a +2.6% gain in the preceding quarter (vs. expectations of +3.07%) and a +4.5% gain in the year-earlier period (vs. expectations of +3.96%).
The expectation for Target on the comps front is +3.16% growth, following the +3.8% gain in the preceding period (vs. expectations of 2.54%). Target’s impressive comp showing in the August 19th release followed a similarly impressive result on May 2nd. Given the stock’s recent momentum, Target investors are likely looking for a repeat performance this week.
With respect to the Retail sector 2026 Q3 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 17 of the 30 retailers in the S&P 500 index. Regular readers know that Zacks has a dedicated stand-alone economic sector for retail, unlike its placement in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors in the Standard & Poor’s standard industry classification.
The Zacks Retail sector includes not only Walmart, Target, and other traditional retailers, but also online vendors like Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) and restaurant players. The 17 Zacks Retail companies in the S&P 500 index that have already reported Q3 results mostly belong to the e-commerce and restaurant industries, though we have several restaurant companies on deck to report this week as well.
Total Q3 earnings for these 13 retailers that have reported are up +2.8% from the same period last year on +10.7% higher revenues, with 70.6% beating EPS estimates and 52.9% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below put the Q3 beats percentages for these retailers in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, the revenue beats percentages for these online players and restaurant operators are tracking significantly below the historical averages for this group of companies, but EPS beats are far more numerous.
With respect to earnings and revenue growth rates at this stage, we like to show the group’s performance with and without Amazon, whose results are among the 17 companies that have already reported. As we know, Amazon’s Q3 earnings were down -2.4% on +12.1% higher revenues, as it missed both EPS and top- line expectations.
The two comparison charts below show Q3 earnings and revenue growth relative to other recent periods, both with Amazon’s results (left-side chart) and without Amazon’s numbers (right-side chart).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, earnings for the group outside of Amazon are up +11% on a +9.1% top-line gain.
Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, November 13th, we have seen Q3 results from 454 S&P 500 members, or 90.8% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +24.9% from the same period last year on +13.7% higher revenues, with 82.4% beating EPS estimates and 75.1% beating revenues estimates.
The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Excluding the Micron and Alphabet contributions, Q3 earnings for the remaining index members that have reported would be up +21.7%.
The comparison charts below show Q3 earnings and revenue growth for this group of companies, excluding Micron and Alphabet, across all periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
Looking at Q3 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 454 S&P 500 members with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total earnings are on track to increase by +28.9% from the same period last year on +14.6% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, index earnings are expected to increase by +27.9% from the same period last year, on +13.5% higher revenues in the current period (2026 Q4).
The revisions trend has been positive, as we have repeatedly noted in this note in recent weeks and as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We should note that the magnitude of positive revisions we are seeing for Q4 is weaker than what we saw in the comparable period for Q3.
The chart below shows the aggregate growth picture for the S&P 500 index on a calendar year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) , and Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) have substantial weight in the index's annual earnings growth pace. Nvidia has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons, but the semiconductor leader is on deck to report Q3 results after the market’s close on Tuesday, November 17th.
The chart below shows the substantial contribution of these three Tech players in the index’s earnings growth pace.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As we noted earlier, estimates for full-year 2027 are experiencing the same positive and broad-based revisions trend that we noted earlier in the context of 2026 Q4. The chart below shows how aggregate 2027 earnings expectations have evolved since the start of July.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For a detailed view of the evolving earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>> Q3 Earnings Results Reconfirm Broad Based Strength as Outlook Improves